​A second list of predictions relevant to the upcoming conflict with Iran is now presented for 2012-2013. Some predictions (e.g., those concerning sanctions against Iran, anticipated extensive collateral damage) were made during the Spring with the rest originally formulated in January 2012). We predict that it is highly likely the US/Israel will attack Iran during 2012-2013, possibly as soon as late Summer or early Fall. These predictions are offered with a moderately high level of confidence. Why is the confidence higher than the first list? Because the war with Iran was predicted with formal decision rules. Over 50 investigations over the last half century have shown that individual judgment and intuition as well as exercise of personality traits over formal rules are inferior to formal decision analysis. An algorithm such as the one described in the Predictions webpage yielded the conclusion that the US/Israel will likely attack Iran.  This same algorithm, along with the Delphi Method also described on the Predictions webpage, correctly predicted the 1990-1991 Persian Gulf War and the Iraq invasion in 2003. The predictions follow:​

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Prior to onset of war:
1.    At least 50,000 additional US military and civilians deployed to sites within easy striking distance around Iran, adding to the 50,000 already there. This does not include personnel from US forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan but does include US personnel stationed at US military facilities Jebel Ali and Al Dahfra in the United Arab Emirates, Arifan in Kuwait, and Al Udeid in Qatar;
2.    At least 95% of Israeli Mossad personnel assigned to covert ops complete training in combat operations including deep penetration tactics at least three months prior to attack on Iran;
3.    The “mother ship”, a US multipurpose floating base with air assault, commando ops, missile launch, and mine sweeping capabilities is positioned near or in the Persian Gulf at least one month prior to the attack on Iran;
4.    The mother ship is provided with Mark 5 Zodiacs as well as Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats capable of carrying an entire SEAL squad;
5.    US forces buildup exceeds 5,000 personnel on the Yemeni island of Scototra alone, a short flying distance from Iran;
6.    US forces buildup exceeds 5,000 on Omani island of Masirah alone. Masirah is within easy striking distance of Iran and located just south of the Hormuz entry point;
7.    There is a negligible chance that Prime Minister Netanyahu will agree to delay the onset of the attack on Iran beyond 2012. His aggressive personality traits coupled with messianic  tendencies are well known. His party managed to delay elections so that he will be in power in Israel during 2012;
8.    Three US aircraft carriers—USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Carl Vinson, USS Enterprise-- and their strike groups, plus a French carrier— Charles de Gaule--position themselves in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea at least one month prior to the onset of hostilities. A fourth US carrier and strike group joins the largest-ever assembly of naval war vessels in the region in the last half-century.
9.    US forces buildup in Israel alone prior to outbreak of hostilities exceeds 5,000. Originally on TDY for the largest-ever joint missile defense exercise, the now-cancelled Austere Challenge, the US troops remain and their status has been changed to a deployment;
10.    Iran continues to develop both its nuclear weapons enrichment program and its nuclear missile delivery systems.  It may take up to 3 months after the onset of hostilities and several inspection teams to confirm this finding;
11.    Major polls report majority of Americans approve of Iran invasion if diplomatic talks fail to stop the development of Iran’s nuclear weapons program;
12.    Iran will once more deny the validity of the November 2011 IAEA findings that it engaged in research or production activities that only are relevant to nuclear weapon development;
13.    US sanctions against Iran will not be lifted prior to engagement of hostilities.  Sanctions are scheduled to be tightened in July by President Obama. The EU will reportedly attempt a full oil embargo against Iran in late June;
14.    Sometime this summer or early fall at the latest, US residents should expect at least a 15-20% increase in already record-high gasoline and petroleum products.  This increase will be blamed in part on Iran. The effect on the American people will be a weakening of inhibitions toward going to war with a nation blamed for creating inflated prices for necessities;
15.    European groups underwriting Iran’s maritime insurance will be reduced to 10% or less compared to 2011.  Currently these European concerns underwrite 95% or more of maritime insurance in the world;
16.    The 5+1 nation diplomatic talks may or may not be declared non-productive by the US. Nevertheless the US will not refuse to attend talks up to the onset of hostilities.  They are set to resume in Moscow in June. The talks already are seen as a sham by Israel who accuses Iran representatives of lying and stalling for time;
17.    The upcoming talks in Moscow in June will be nonproductive and deadlocked, as have the prior meetings, with difficulty finding common ground except for the agreement to talk more.  The prediction is that the Western-backed incentive package seeking to end Iran’s highest-level uranium enrichment as a first step will not be accepted by Iran in Moscow or during subsequent talks, if any.  Iran has already announced that it will not give up any of its “nuclear rights”.
18.    The US Congress does not declare war on Iran prior to hostilities. A resolution to employ a military option may or may not pass if Iran does not cease and desist from their program to develop a nuclear weapons capability;
19.    At least 6 hours to 6 days prior to the onset of attack by US/Israel a false flag, demand that will not be followed by Iran, or other contrived trigger appears (e.g.,breaking news which erroneously reports Iranian military have attacked US/Israel forces or facilities; ultimatum Ahmadinejad open key sites for inspection within 48 hours or face attack);
20.    The US with the assistance of Israel attacks Iran sometime in 2012-2013, possibly as early as by the end of 2012.
21.   The war starts with an at least 7-day air bombardment, drone attacks, cruise and other missiles launchings, and other airborne weapon deployment, by US/Israeli land, sea and air forces;
22.   The sum total of all bombs, bullets, missiles, and other firepower  utilized by the US/Israel at the time victory is declared is larger than during any other war in the history of the US;
23.   Stealth aircraft including the new stealth drones used in 50+ missions by US;
24.   Israeli UAVs including the new Titan used in 20+ missions;
25.   Israel will attack Iran with at least 50 of its 128 US-purchased F-151 and F-161 aircraft modified with Israeli avionics and additional fuel tanks for long distance missions;
26.    Israel will make at least 100 US missions with their GBU-28 bunker busters carried by F-151 fighter-bombers;
27.    US submarines and Israeli German-built Dolphin submarines will deploy to the Persian Gulf region to take part in the US naval attack on Iran forces;
28.    At least 90% of Iran’s navy of speedboats and aging big ships destroyed within 1 month after hostilities commence;
29.    At least 90% of Iran’s stored offshore oil, consisting of up to 1 million barrels of crude stored in tankers or platforms or other facilities, will be captured or destroyed within one month after commencement of hostilities; 
30.    At least 90% of Iran’s air force of Russian-supplied MIG 295s and 35 year old American-built F14 Tomcat fighters destroyed within 1 month after start of war;
31.   At least 80 % of Iran’s missile arsenal including the new solid fuel Shajjil-2 destroyed within 60 days after onset of hostilities;
32.  At least 90% of Iran’s 1000 miles of coastline come under direct control of US/Israel forces within one month after hostilities commence., as evidenced by destruction/removal of at least 90% of Iran’s military within several miles of the their coastline;
33.   No division or larger size units will deploy “boots on the ground” in Iran, that is, infantry and conventional forces of the US/Israel, within 1 month after the onset of hostilities. This does not include the overlapping categories of special force teams, commando raids, nuclear site inspection teams, airborne operations, specialized demolition teams, or other small group intrusions into Iran.  After victory is secure, it is opined but not part of this prediction that conventional units of the US will be needed to secure sites associated with Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, governmental and training facilities, as well as to nullify an anticipated resistance movement from defeated Iran;
34.   Non-stealth drones deployed in at least 150 attacks against Iran by both US/Israel;
35.   A total victory will be declared by U.S./Israel within 3 months of the initiation of hostilities;
36.   Casualties for U.S./Israel military combined will not exceed 999 deaths at the time victory is declared;
37.   Casualties for Iran’s military exceeds 10000 within 3 months of the onset of hostilities, or at the time victory is declared, whichever occurs last;
38.   Iranian civilian losses expected to exceed 30,000 within 3 months of the onset of hostilities as as many of the target sites are in high-density population areas. The 30,000+ number should be determined by independent epidemiologists, not US/Israeli government workers.  A second wave of deaths and incapacitations, not part of this prediction, will follow after the 3 month period due to secondary causes such as disease and the progressive effects of trauma;
39.   At least 90% of Iran’s science and tech workers associated with military forces, training, research, any aspect of the nuclear infrastructure or defense work, are killed, captured, removed from their position, or otherwise nullified within 3 months of the onset of hostilities;
40.  Collateral sites destroyed, partially destroyed or controlled by US/Israeli military or civilian personnel include at least 6 universities, 6 other training sites, 6 government admin offices, and 6 other non-military sites;
41.   The conflict will be contained to US/lsrael versus Iran except for selected targets and aggressors (i.e., attacks on Hamas in Lebanon; Hezbollah in Gaza;  attacks on on Americans/Jewish people out of Iran).  No country in the world deploys military forces inside Iran during hostilities or within 3 months of the declared victory by US/Israel;
42.   Within 3 months of media reports showing the use of a false flag or contrived trigger(s) for US/Israel invasion of Iran, American polls report that the majority of US citizens nevertheless do not favor withdrawal US forces. This was our experience for Iraq;
The above 42 predictions, conservative in this writer’s opinion, are verifiable.  An unknown number of the above predictions, however, may not be capable of verification, as the information may remain classified or otherwise unavailable until after victory is declared, if ever. The cut off date for verification of the predictions is December 31, 2012, or three months after victory is declared, whichever occurs first.  Predictions that cannot be verified due to missing information should not be counted in the calculation of true positives and true negatives.
The two sets of 62 predictions for 2012 and US-related activity and events should be viewed to some extent as intertwining in cause and effect. Americans are hurting at home and this colors their willingness to act in ways to reduce that hurt. In this country, there will be some ostensibly positive changes and emotional ups and downs, mostly downs, for the beleaguered American worker and those without a job.  Deception and distortion of information will be more prevalent and robust than usual in an important election year.  If the above predictions are borne out, no real changes will take place in this country or in Congress. Except for expedient legislation, gridlock in Congress will continue. Congressional abrogation of responsibility to declare war will be masked by a lot of posturing and perhaps a joint resolution to approve funding for limited operations against Iran.  We know what will happen with this.  Presidential and congressional candidates will express optimism and confidence in the future and present themselves as competent crisis managers.  The population will be distracted by the conflict in Iran, although the decision to go to war will have preceded serious public debate. Artificial means will prevent a badly fractured economy from collapsing in an election year. War veterans nonetheless will return to a harsh job market and an overwhelmed health care system.
It is a good year for asking tough questions. Has a decision to go to war with Iran already been made without the authorization of Congress? Who are within this ostensibly small group of people that have such an inordinate degree of power in our lives. Has Congress done everything possible to assert its constitutionally mandated role to openly debate and vote on whether to authorize funds for war? The question is critical, even though the end result may be the same if a case can be made that Iran is a significant and imminent danger to our country. The question is not whether a conflict will break out---the chances are that it will and soon—but rather to the web of deceit shown by all 3 principles in ostensibly attempting to prevent the war in light of a decision to pursue it.  The US and Israel downplays the enormous regional and worldwide orchestration of tools for the war, as specifically delineated in the above predictions. These prognostication if correct suggest that Obama and Netanyahu want the war and the favorable consequences to themselves—for Israel it preserves the balance of power and delays the development of nuclear weapons by Iran if only for a short while (they can always attack again); for the U.S. it supports the only non-Muslim nation in the region, Israel and politically is tied to almost a guaranteed re-election.
We nod sagely at the Dalai Lama’s admonition that we can never make peace with the outer world until we make peace with ourselves.  Then we turn around and aggress against our fellow human or support those who do. We agree with his words that happiness is a choice made by individual actions.  The above predictions, if borne out, suggest that our leaders have chosen for darkness.
     In any event, we should fiercely uphold the 750 years of Anglo-American legal wisdom stemming from the Magna Carta, which in the best and worst of times has affirmed that due process ― not the arbitrary whims of kings, heads of state, or armed minions ― shall prevail in matters of who shall live and who shall die.  This is a defining issue for the electorate in 2012. What will Congress do to reverse the malignant trend of unilateral executive war-making?  Already we have examples of American citizens being killed by drone attacks overseas.  When will it happen here?
After the war with Iran, to a large extent the US/Israel attack on Iran will likely be seen by most of the Muslim world as grossly disproportionate, morally outrageous, and hideously costly in terms of lives and material resources.  There is little doubt that substantial numbers of the non-Muslim world will be negatively affected, and sympathize with the Iranians despite their contributions to the war. Muslim nations worldwide will lean more toward solidarity and common cause against this magnificent country  which they see as implacably corrupt and declining as a would-be empire. Despite the language of conflict resolution and diplomacy, deep distrust and projection of blame is rife among the warring parties. Ominously, the foundation will be firm-set for a larger war against the West. The majority of wars eventually breed second or third conflicts against the same adversary, as with tour multiple conflicts against the UK, Mexico, Germany, and Iraq. Intractable wars may persist for generations, as with the longest ever US-Muslim nations since 9-11--Iraq and Afghanistan.  The Palestine-Israel conflict since 1949 is unlikely to be solved within our lifetime.  It is interesting to note that despite formal treaties, no fundamental changes in attitudes usually take place in the contestants short of virtual extermination of the losers, or their forced removal. The US in its 300+ year near-extermination of Native Americans. (About 370 treaties were made by the US from 1778 to 1871, the honored treaties amounting to a big fat zero).  Israel forcibly removed the Palestinians during their war of independence. Today, more support has been reported in Israeli surveys to forceably deport the Muslim inhabitants of the nation. Both sides are responsible. The Kurds in northwestern Iran has long been the target of violence by the extant regime. In short, no meaningful or durable treaties were made by the winners of a war. We can expect the same for Iran.